How will loss of USDA Cattle Inventory reports impact farmers. What we know and don't know

Earlier this month, the USDA announced it was scrapping its July Cattle Inventory report, one of just two major reports released annually.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) also disclosed that it would be canceling livestock and crop production surveys, information that ag organizations say are "crucial to the success of America’s farmers and ranchers".

What's behind the discontinuation of these valuable reports filled with critical data? Here's what we know and don't know:

What is the Cattle Inventory survey?

According to the USDA, the survey is conducted in all states and provides basic inventory data describing the nation's cattle herd. The reports provide estimates of the number of breeding animals for beef and milk production as well as the number of heifers being held for breeding herd replacement. Estimates of cattle and calves being raised for meat production are also included. The number of calves born during the previous year is also measured.

How often were the reports released?

The January and July Cattle Inventory reports are released on a Friday towards the end of the respective months. The January report provides estimates of total inventory, beef cows, milk cows, bulls, replacement heifers, other steers and heifers, and number of calves born in the previous year by state and the U.S. In July, estimates are for the U.S. only, according to the USDA.

Why is the USDA halting these valuable reports?

According to an April 9, press release, USDA officials said the decision to discontinue these surveys was necessary, citing budget cuts from recent appropriation bills.  

Why is the loss of the July report so troublesome?

The release of the bullish January inventory report shed a bright light on the state of the cattle markets in 2024, With the release of the American Farm Bureau Federation's Market Intel

USDA’s semiannual cattle inventory report provided some key insights for cattle markets in 2024. In fact, the overall cattle inventory, along with the beef inventory was the lowest Jan. 1 inventory since 1951 ‒ thanks to the impact of the drought and higher input costs. Farmers and cattle producers relied on this mid-year check-in.

Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection Livestock and Meat Specialist Jeff Swenson says discontinuing the July Cattle Inventory report takes away the mid-year snapshot of cow numbers, the number of heifers kept of replacement, and the first look at the current calf crop.

"Those aspects of the report are useful to farmers planning their marketing strategies. Markets, by nature, react to data, so less information opens the possibility for larger price corrections when the data becomes available.

Critics say loss of reports removes market transparency and increases market volatility

Ag groups like AFBF and the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) which represent the industry's stakeholders criticized USDA's decision to terminate the publication of the reports, saying market transparency is essential where four companies control 85% of the cattle market.

"It is disingenuous for the same agency which touts its commitment to transparency in livestock markets to arbitrarily cease publication of reports which provide just that," NCBA Vice President of Governmental Affairs Ethan Lane said in a statement.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall said, "Data will only be available to those who can afford to collect it, further threatening competition in the packing sector."

Both AFBA and NCBA are urging the USDA to reconsider its decision.

Are there other reliable data sources to help gain insight into marketing trends?

Swenson says there are other reports to help stakeholders.

The monthly Cattle on Feed Report will help give us an idea of cattle numbers, though relying on cattle and calf numbers placed in feedlots without the calf crop data may cause a “fuzzier picture” of the number of available cattle outside of feedlots," he said. "The USDA’s Weekly Red Meat Production is another report, providing data on cattle harvested by head and what percentage of those are steers, heifers, cows, or bulls. It gives us an idea about what is happening to the cow inventory and whether farmers and ranchers are selling their heifers or keeping them to grow the herd. The Monthly Slaughter report includes that information as well."

What will this mean regarding feed demand if we don't clearly understand the current and projected cattle inventory?

Swenson says federal programs and crop insurance programs have been relying more on USA Risk Management Agency information and less on National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data in recent years, so farmers may not see a large change in that regard," he said. "Local elevators relying on the reports to judge how much grain is available in their trade area will find it challenging going forward. Likewise, it will be harder for livestock producers to know what feed availability looks like in their area and could make it more challenging to lock in input costs."

The loss of the July Cattle Inventory report is a big one, especially now when the national herd is at a 73-year low. Data provided in the report helps farmers, researchers, and others in the industry assess the current market situation. Without this mid-year checkup on a large scale from a reputable source, decisions will need to be made based on private estimates or without updated information. This just adds volatility in feed prices and more to the already unpredictable cattle market.

While USDA official's cited the cut due to budgetary considerations, AFBF President Zippy Duvall emphasized the importance of the surveys, particularly the July cattle report. “NASS’ two reports regarding the total U.S. cattle inventory, published on Jan. 31 and in late July, give farmers, ranchers, researchers and other data users a full picture of supplies in the U.S. cattle sector at the beginning and in the middle of each year, Duvall said in a news release.

"This allows for a fair assessment of the cattle market for the next six months. Eliminating the mid-year report puts the market in the dark for the second half of the year, removes market transparency and increases market volatility.""

Data will only be available to those who can afford to collect it, further threatening competition in the packing sector.”

Farmers are price takers not price makers and have no control over the markets in which their livestock is sold. Market transparency is essential where four companies control 85% of the cattle market.

oday, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) criticized the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Services’ (USDA-NASS) decision to cancel the July Cattle Report and discontinue the County Estimates for Crops and Livestock, among other changes. These reports provide critical data and the decision to end them is completely misguided. 

“It is disingenuous for the same agency which touts its commitment to transparency in livestock markets to arbitrarily cease publication of reports which provide just that. While it may be politically expedient to blame appropriators in Congress for today’s decision, cattle producers know better than to believe discontinuing a handful of reports will result in substantive cost savings for the Department,” said NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. “NCBA calls on USDA-NASS to immediately reverse this decision and continue delivering on its stated mission of providing timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture.”

NASS has and will continue to review its estimating programs using criteria focused on the needs of its mission and customers to prioritize budget decisions. Information about all NASS surveys and reports is available online at www.nass.usda.gov.